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| The Norwegian crime writer Jo Nesbø, who is behind the idea for Occupied, which imagines Russia invading Norway. Photograph: Linda Nylind |
TV drama depicting Russian invasion premieres in Norway
Norwegian thriller Occupied has been condemned by Moscow and is likely to tap into fears in Scandinavian countries of Russian aggression
David Crouch in Gothenburg
Fri 2 Oct 2015 16.24 BST
The scenario of Occupied, a Scandinavian thriller that premieres in Norway this weekend (Sunday 4 October), and in western Europe during the autumn, is likely to tap into fears of Russian aggression – and perhaps, according to critics, inflame them.
Based on an idea by the bestselling Norwegian crime writer Jo Nesbø, the series imagines that an environmentalist government has come to power in Norway and ceased to supply Europe with North Sea oil, forcing the EU to call on Russia to come to its aid.
This is a big-budget production with backing from Arte, the Franco-German TV network, and produced by the Swedish studio behind the Wallander TV series and the Girl with the Dragon Tattoo movies.
Russia has condemned the series for pitting Scandinavians against Russians “in the worst traditions of the cold war”. Although its creators claim that it is obviously fiction, the global context has been upended since Occupied was originally conceived – Russia’s occupation of Crimea last year and the civil war in east Ukraine have fuelled the worst crisis in relations with Moscow for a generation.
“When I presented this idea about two years ago, they said the problem is it’s a bit far-fetched,” Nesbø told the Guardian this year. But events in Ukraine have proved him right, he believes.
Marianne Gray, the series producer, said:“The timing is insane given what is happening in the world.”
For many in the Nordic countries, the possibility of Russian aggression seems an all too clear and present danger. Governments are ramping up their military spending in step with their rhetoric.
Sweden’s military has been instructed to call up thousands of reservists for refresher training “to increase the operational effectiveness of our units in response to the changing security situation in Europe”, said Maj Gen Karl Engelbrektson, an army spokesman. Sweden’s home guard, which mobilises some 22,000 volunteer reservists, says it has seen a large increase in people wanting to join since the Ukraine-Russia conflict broke out.
Earlier this year, Sweden’s government declared it was returning troops to the strategic Baltic territory of Gotland amid suspicions that Russia had conducted war games to seize Swedish, Danish and Finnish islands. The Swedish defence minister, Peter Hultqvist, announced an inquiry this autumn into reintroducing conscription, a move he himself favours and which is popular in the polls.
Urban Lindström, whose Facebook campaign to bring back conscription last month surpassed 10,000 followers, said: “It is imperative that not only the professional army, but also the home guard receives soldiers with adequate training – we can only achieve that with a sufficient number of conscripts every year.”
Opinion surveys suggest a new and growing plurality in favour of joining Nato – “insurance against occupation”, as some politicians call it. According to a poll in September, 41% of Swedes were in favour of Nato membership – up 10 percentage points since May – and 39% against.
Until recently, Finland was emphatically opposed to Nato membership, but its new rightwing government said in May it reserved the option to apply for membership “at any time” and was calculating the potential costs and implications.
Hannah Smith, a specialist in Russia at Helsinki University, and a supporter of Nato membership, said: “Since the beginning of 2014 the average voter’s concern about Russia has increased massively. A lot of the younger generation has been infected by the older generation’s suspiciousness.”
Suspicions about Moscow’s intentions towards Denmark have been fuelled by incursions into Danish airspace, with fighters scrambled 58 times in 2014 to intercept Russian aircraft. Denmark’s military intelligence alleges that In June 2014, Russia mounted a dummy attack on the Danish island of Bornholm while the country’s political elite were gathered there.
The choice of the Danish title – The Russian Ambassador – for Norway’s new TV series carries a particular resonance given the furore this year caused by Mikhail Vanin, Russia’s ambassador to Copenhagen, when he told a newspaper that Danish warships would be “targets for Russian nuclear missiles”, if the country chose to join Nato’s missile shield. The series airs in Denmark next week.
Vanin said: “History shows that aggression has always originated from the west of Europe. It is sufficient to recall the Teutonic Knights, Swedish expansion, Napoleon or Hitler. Do not forget about their modern successor – Nato. In this context, we have no positive sentiments about the forthcoming premiere of Occupied.”
Oslo’s relations with Russia have also turned frosty. In September, Norway unveiled the first of up to 52 F-35 fighter jets it is purchasing from the US, saying the stealth aircraft provide an important counterweight to Russia in the region. Announcing a boost to military spending, the defence minister Ine Marie Eriksen Søreide said: “Russia has shown both the ability and willingness to use military force to achieve its strategic objectives.”
Public opinion has also shifted. An opinion survey of 41 countries by Gallup last year found that Norwegians topped the poll as the most negatively disposed towards the Russian leadership, with 89% disapproving.
“In Norway many people used to be moderately positive towards Russia, but the developments in Ukraine have driven a big shift,” said Indra Øverland, a professor at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. “Some of those who were neutral have turned negative, and the negatives have gone super-negative.”
When Geir Pollen, a lecturer in Norwegian at St Petersburg State University, wrote an article condemning the series for resurrecting cold war stereotypes, some of his Russian students wrote him letters of thanks.
“When I see how much they love Norwegian and work on the language and are so dedicated, but then we give them such rubbish, I am very much ashamed,” Pollen said. “The series contributes to a black and white picture of the Russians. It is very irresponsible.”
Occupied will show on Sky Arts in the UK early in 2016. The series airs in Germany, France, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, the Netherlands and Belgium this autumn and in the new year.
THE GUARDIAN
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