Ngugi wa Thiong'o

Ngugi wa Thiong'o tipped for 2014 Nobel prize in literature

This article is more than 7 years old

Odds on Kenyan author shorten from 33/1 to 10/1 led by bellwether Swedish money, according to Ladbrokes

Alison Flood

Wed 3 September 2014

A run of bets originating in Sweden has seen the odds plummet on Ngugi wa Thiong'o, the distinguished Kenyan author, winning the Nobel prize for literature next month. The chances of the recently-retired Philip Roth taking the Nobel have also fallen dramatically, according to betting firm Ladbrokes.

Ladbrokes said that odds on Ngugi being named winner of the world's most prestigious literary award, given out every October in Stockholm, had shortened from 33/1 to 10/1. "It's always worth following the Swedish money and at this stage the one they like is Ngugi wa Thiong'o," said spokesman for the betting firm Alex Donohue. Ngugi's books include Caitani Mutharabaini (Devil on the Cross), a novel written on toilet paper while he was imprisoned following the performance of his play, Ngaahika Ndeenda (I Will Marry When I Want), which was critical of the inequalities of Kenyan society. He had been a favourite to take the Nobel in 2010, but that year the prize went to Mario Vargas Llosa. Tomas Tranströmer, 2010's fourth favourite to win, went on to take the Nobel in 2011.

Favourite this year, according to Ladbrokes' odds, is Japanese novelist Haruki Murakami at 5/1,with Ngugi in joint second place with Algerian novelist Assia Djebar. Roth, who recently announced his happy retirement from the world of novel writing, comes in at 16/1, as do the feted Czech writer Milan Kundera, and the Syrian poet, Adonis.

"Philip Roth appears to be this year's 'stalking horse' so far as odds have fallen from 50/1 to 16/1 and at present he is the worst result in the book for us," said Donohue. "Plenty of the bets for him have been placed in betting shops in the UK as opposed to on our website or via our mobile app which is usually where most literary betting business is done."

Roth published his final novel, Nemesis, in 2010. "I did what I did and it's done," he has said. "There's more to life than writing and publishing fiction. There is another way entirely, amazed as I am to discover it at this late date."

Some fans continue to think Bob Dylan has a chance at winning the Nobel, which goes to "the most outstanding work in an ideal direction", and which is decided by the members of the Swedish Academy. "As ever, there are people who think it could be Bob Dylan's year, but we'll never know if they are simply hopeful fans. There are two bets for Bob, both at 50/1 from Swedish customers," said Donohue.

Ladbrokes opened its book on the 2014 Nobel prize for literature minutes after Alice Munro was announced as last year's winner, cited by judges as the "master of the contemporary short story". "We've been taking bets for this year from the day of the announcement last year," said Donohue.

The date of the prize's announcement has not yet been revealed, but it is usually in early to mid-October.

THE GUARDIAN